How the SCO Summit 2025 Will Shape Global Trade and Eurasian Connectivity

If you want to understand how goods flow between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East—and how those flows reshape prices, delivery schedules, and even geopolitics—pay close attention to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin, China (August 31–September 1, 2025). China, holding the rotating presidency this year, is using the platform to push for greater economic influence, including renewed momentum for a SCO development bank to fund cross-border infrastructure and industrial projects.

This summit carries unusual weight. It brings together 10 full members—China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, and the newest entrant, Belarus—alongside a wide circle of observers and dialogue partners spanning the Middle East and Eurasia. That broader geography is critical: it concentrates nearly all of the region’s strategic rail, road, and maritime chokepoints into a single forum that can coordinate standards, financing, and political backing for new trade corridors.

At the center of discussion are the competing and overlapping routes that define the Eurasian trade corridor system: the China–Europe rail network, the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor,” and the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects India and the Gulf to Russia and Europe via Iran and the Caspian Sea. The Tianjin summit will signal which routes move up the priority list, what new investments might be unlocked, and which countries stand to gain—or lose—as the map of global trade is redrawn. The outcomes will ripple far beyond the region, shaping global trade data and supply chains in 2025 and the years ahead.

What’s New on the Table at SCO 2025?

At the Tianjin summit, President Xi Jinping pushed for faster progress on a SCO development bank and pledged new loan support for member states, signaling that economic integration, not just security, will become a major SCO priority. If established, the bank could serve as a dedicated funding source for rail upgrades, dry ports, digitized customs systems, and industrial parks along critical trade corridors, effectively acting as the SCO’s own “connectivity lender” alongside China’s policy banks and other multilateral institutions. Now that Belarus became a fully fledged member in July 2024, the geographical scope of the SCO encompasses the eastern frontier of the European Union, while still maintaining its substantial reach in Central Asia, South Asia, and the Persian Gulf, thereby enhancing its influence over the east–west (China–Europe), and north–south (Russia–Caspian–Iran–India) trade routes. The summit also attracts high-level participation by bilateral pairs such as Russian Vladimir Putin and India's Narendra Modi, who focus on trade and connectivity and the resilience against sanctions. Washington and its allies, as well as international observers such as Reuters, see the meeting as an opportunity for the SCO’s Beijing and Moscow center to provide an alternative to the West’s global economy, with regional integration becoming a key tool.

How SCO Membership Could Transform Trade Flows Across Regions

Think of Eurasian trade as three interlocking spines, each with its own bottlenecks and growth potential, and the SCO as one of the few forums that brings all the critical governments together around these routes. It provided faster transportation of valuable cargo compared to maritime shipping which is why most of it was able to travel over 2 million TEU and over 100 cities in 11 Asian countries and 227 European cities in 2024 on 19000 train rides . Along the rest of Europe it connected with 11 cities in Asia on the China Europe Rail. This was also referred to as the Northern Route. It experienced a slight dip in volume containers noted over a twenty two percent year on year difference which reflected the fluctuating prices on the sea. The rest of the world and the upper region of Europe is connected through the Trans Caspian Middle Corridor. It starts from China and Kazakhstan, passes through the Caspian Sea and touches down on Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and even the European Union. It experienced the most growth in 2024 with January and November having reported over 4.1 million tons. It was also noted that there was a surge in intermediate region port containers. The Northern Route is still considerably more inexpensive than the rest of the world however with the help from the rest of the world, there are unexploited investments and imperative policies like tariff transparency, digital framework, and port system schedules which can improve it. The rest of The world has also kept a steady record growth of the International North-South Transport which was started to connect India with Russia and Northern Europe passing through Iran and Caspian sea. In 2024 it was noted that there was a 19 percent increase with the total volume being 26.9 million tons. It was also noted that the trade between Russia and India saw an increase of 100 percent on certain routes.

India’s 10-year operational contract for Chabahar port, backed by $370 million in equipment and credit, anchors the corridor’s gateway. With India, Iran, and Russia all in the SCO, the forum has the potential to drive rail infrastructure, customs digitization, and financial solutions that scale INSTC’s capacity and reliability, complementing the broader Eurasian trade network.

Key Trade Exchanges Between SCO and Corridor Economies in 2024

Bilateral trade flows within the SCO region are playing a decisive role in shaping the future of Eurasian trade corridors. China and Russia relationship partners cultivate China and India trade and Russia India trade enabling North south trade India and Russia trade Corridor around INSTC. Partnerships valued at dollars, supports major cross-border circulation of energy and China in India trade. Equally important is China–Kazakhstan trade, valued at $27.9 billion, where Kazakhstan acts as a pivotal transit hub for China–Europe rail connections and the Middle Corridor. On the western flank, Belarus–Russia trade at $57.6 billion reinforces east–west rail routes, ensuring smooth passage into Europe. Lastly, while valued at just $393.8 million, Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan trade is valued for the growth of Caspian transshipments which are crucial for the development of the Middle Corridor. These bilateral relations together show why the SCO Summit 2025 is crucial for furthering Eurasian connectivity and trade integration.

From Talking Points to Projects: How an SCO Development Bank Can Drive Finance

The most immediate impact from Tianjin is expected to come through financing. A dedicated SCO development bank could de-risk multi-country projects, such as dry ports at Khorgos, Altynkol, Aktau/Kuryk, Alyat, and inland terminals in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which often struggle to secure blended funding since the benefits are spread across borders. It could also scale digital trade infrastructure, including single-window customs, e-CIM/rail consignment harmonization, and interoperable data standards, ensuring that trains and trucks retain the time savings gained from faster paperwork. Additionally, the bank could top up existing programs from institutions like the EBRD, ADB, AIIB, and national banks, particularly for last-mile rail upgrades, Caspian ferries and ro-ro operations, and gauge-break solutions at the China–Kazakh and Belarus–EU connections.

The Power of Standards: Why the ‘Soft’ Corridor Matters Most

Trade corridors are only as fast as their slowest customs window, making SCO-level cooperation critical. Efforts on common data sets for manifests and sanitary/phytosanitary documentation, mutual recognition of origin and conformity assessments, and risk-based inspections with green lanes for trusted traders could cut transit times by days—often more efficiently and cost-effectively than building new tracks. Post-summit communiqués are likely to highlight themes such as “digital connectivity,” “paperless trade,” and “mutual recognition,” making these key terms to watch.

Energy Trade and Currency Settlement Mechanisms

Energy trade and local-currency settlement are likely to feature inside meetings, as members hedge against sanctions and FX risk. While details vary, more local-currency usage in bilateral trade could flow into freight and port service payments, reducing friction for operators. (Watch for joint statements from central banks and finance ministries around the summit dates.)

What the Numbers Reveal About Each Trade Corridor’s Path

China–Europe Rail: Strong Performance with Cyclical Trends

The China–Europe rail network is set to reach 227 European cities by 2024 and serves 12–18 day transit times for sensitive shipments such as electronics, automotive parts, and e-commerce. However, it is still bound by sea freight price control, sanctions and insurance lane constraints, as well as the 2025 decline in rail container volumes. The price elasticity indicates that it is not a structural decline. From the SCO point of view, important elements include coordinated capacity and scheduling with the Chinese, Kazakh, Russian, and Belarusian railways, as well as improving block–train dependability and transparent tariff policies to hold the market even when ocean spot rates drop.

Middle Corridor: Limited Base, High Growth Potential

The Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor” offers strengths such as diversification away from the Russia route, expanding port capacity and containerization, and triple-digit TEU growth in some segments during 2024. However, it is still at risk because of the price and intricacy of several modes of transport, the schedule of transfers that depend on the weather and the sea on the Caspian, the lack of price agreement among several operators, and the possible congestion at the terminals. Thus it augments, but does not replace, the primary corridors. For the Other member states of the SCO, the principal focal points of interest are the joint purchase or cooperative arrangement of the Caspian ferry and ro-ro fleets, synchronized schedules for port calls, and integrated pricing and booking systems across the countries of the TITR alliance.

INSTC: Emerging as a Key North–South Link

The International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) demonstrates successful outcome with 26.9 million tons of cargo accomplished in 2024 (+19% YoY) , the operational resiliency offered by Chabahar along with the 10 year operational framework, the fragmentations of multiple branches to the west through Azerbaijan and to the East via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan providing both redundancy and porosity to the system. All of this while counters edges, her geographical position, sanctions exposure tied to the financing and insurance of Iran associated to the un operationalized rails tied to transshipment and customs friction borders round the Caspian. From the SCO, key developments to watch include financing packages and country-to-country MoUs specifying rail links like Rasht–Astara, port equipment investments, and joint insurance solutions to facilitate cargo movement through sanctioned jurisdictions..

Country-by-Country Implications

China aims to solidify its role in Eurasian trade beyond the Belt and Road by creating a SCO-centered finance and standards ecosystem, sustaining rail volumes to Europe and expanding Middle Corridor throughput to reduce exposure to maritime chokepoints and geopolitical risk. Russia, facing sanctions, seeks resilient north–south links for imports and exports, and the growing INSTC—where volumes rose and India–Russia trade doubled—underscores why Moscow wants SCO attention on this corridor; Belarus’ membership extending the SCO footprint to the EU’s edge also adds symbolic and strategic value that could influence Russia’s trade data. India, through its Chabahar agreement, gains a long-term gateway into Central Asia and Russia without relying on Pakistan routes and a hedge against Red Sea instability. At the SCO, New Delhi is expected to prioritize practical trade facilitation over political statements, focusing on faster customs along INSTC legs, clarity on shipping and insurance, and cooperation on digital trade documentation.

Central Asian Nations – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan

Transit fees and industrial parks linked to rail hubs are becoming key growth drivers. Kazakhstan experienced a surge in rail and transit volumes in 2024–25 and plans to double Middle Corridor tonnage in the coming years. The SCO gives Astana the means to synchronize with Beijing, Baku, and Tbilisi on ferries, ports, and tariffs. Iran, at the heart of the INSTC, has monetizable transit and port assets for the SCO forum middleman with India and Russia on Rasht–Astara rail gaps, cargo insurance, and financing infrastructure.Belarus, as the SCO’s first European member, aims to integrate east–west and north–south corridors and advocate against sanctions that hinder transit, signaling that SCO-managed trade corridors now reach the EU periphery—a move that is politically significant and logistically impactful.

What the SCO Means for Future Supply Chain Strategies

Key outcomes to watch from the SCO summit include concrete financing lines, such as announcements or a phased roadmap for the SCO development bank, particularly whether it prioritizes corridor trade—ports, rail, customs digitization—and industrial or co-location projects like assembly parks at dry ports. Customs and data interoperability will also be critical, with expected deliverables on paperless trade, mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators (AEOs), risk-based inspections, and common datasets for e-waybills and sanitary/phytosanitary documents, which can shave days off transit. Middle Corridor reliability depends on Caspian ferry and ro-ro operations as well as port coordination across Aktau and Kuryk in Kazakhstan, Alyat and Baku in Azerbaijan, and Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan, with references likely to fleet expansion and joint timetables. On the INSTC, progress on Rasht–Astara rail links, Iranian rail upgrades to the Caspian, and port equipment procurement at Chabahar—supported by India’s 10-year framework and credit line—will be key. Finally, statements regarding local-currency settlement, insurance pools, or alternative payment corridors will signal how SCO economies plan to maintain freight and financing flows despite sanctions.

Forecasting 2025–2027: Key Scenarios to Consider

In a Base Case scenario Eurasian trade corridors develop in multiple streams. After a dip in 2025, the China - Europe Rail stabilizes and oscillates in sync with ocean prices but, with improving service reliability, remains in the 2 million+ TEU annual band. The Middle Corridor increases from low single digit million tons toward mid single digit tons. Containerization and ferry capacity along with the gradual port and rail investments that compress unit costs drive this ascent. Rising in the high single to low double digits, INSTC volumes increase as Chabahar capex comes online and the routine shipment of the domain by Indian shippers, with frictional point being the sanctions management but the 10 year contract brings predictability, the frictional point remains. Although less newsworthy than a new line, incremental wins on customs digitization and joint planning are significant for shippers. To the upside, a development bank or pooled vehicle with initial capital and co-finance MOUs for the SCO could spark a wave of investment for dry ports, ferries, and rolling stock. This would boost the Middle Corridor capacity 20-40%, making the corridor consistently price competitive and closing the key INSTC gaps faster. On the other hand, the downside scenario has geopolitics halting the process of harmonization: the increasing sanctions and the stagnant customs reforms keep the Middle Corridor costs high, the INSTC reliability uneven, and the China-Europe rail service cyclical, making the influence of the SCO more rhetorical than functional.

The Big Picture: How This Summit Shapes Global Trade

The SCO cannot physically build infrastructure or operate ferries, but it can coordinate, standardize, and fund projects—and the 2025 Tianjin summit is the clearest signal yet that members want the organization to be more than a security forum. At its core, the SCO has evolved into a major economic platform, representing a significant share of intra-Eurasian trade flows. Some key figures illustrate the scale: China–Russia trade hit a record $244.8 billion in 2024, largely energy-for-manufactured-goods, highlighting both countries’ interest in stabilizing settlements in local currencies. China–India trade reached $138.5 billion, placing India among China’s top five partners despite political tensions, while India–Russia trade rose to $68.7 billion, nearly double pre-2022 levels, strengthening the case for north–south corridors and long-term trade security frameworks. Belarus–Russia trade totaled $57.6 billion, showing that bilateral flows continue to deepen despite sanctions, and SCO membership amplifies Belarus’ influence over east–west trade. China–Kazakhstan trade exceeded $27.9 billion, reflecting Central Asia’s growing economic weight, while smaller but fast-growing Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan trade ($393.8 million) underscores tighter Caspian integration. Taken together, these flows reveal three core insights from the SCO 2025 summit: the scale of intra-SCO trade rivals traditional blocs such as ASEAN or Mercosur; trade geography is shifting, with growth in India–Russia, China–Central Asia, and Russia–Iran links reducing reliance on Western-centric patterns; and there is clear potential for coordinated trade policy, from tariff alignment and local-currency settlement to investment frameworks that could cut costs and expand trade volumes. In short, SCO Summit 2025 matters not just for transport corridors but for the future of Eurasian trade integration, providing the political framework to deepen interdependence across the region in the years ahead.

Wrapping Up: Conclusions and Insights

In conclusion, the year 2025 stands to be strategically vital for the world with respect to trade, especially with the trade corridors around Eurasia with the SCO summit scheduled to happen in Tianjin. Attending members will be proposing to advance other means of economic cooperation in addition to constructional trade, infrastructure, and international trade development cooperation. Political leaders have the capability to align funding, regulatory, and timeline structures of their project towards the corridors which are still in the process of redefining Eurasia trade. Political leaders have the means to do this when leasing proxy to contingent sea ports along with other mainland routes. We trust this report covering the trade intelligence of the year 2025 has been insightful. For better updates on global trade movements, along with active trade information of over 190 different countries, do visit Cypher Exim. If you require trade reports along with the required market intelligence, importer and exporter data along with other trade-specific information catering to your business demands, do contact us at sales@cypherexim.com